NFL Long-Game Index: Ranking Every Team’s Future Outlook
Which NFL team is best at playing the long game?
Weekly NFL power rankings are cool and all — are they really? — but being that we’re in the throws of the offseason, it’s the appropriate time to go deeper, and expand the mind.
What about this year and next year? What about in 2026, when your QB is due $60 million and your edge rushers are both pushing 32 years old?
That’s what the Long-Game Index (LGI) is built to do — highlight the teams genuinely set up for sustainable success in the fast-paced NFL… and which ones are staring down the barrel of a bleak football future.
Here’s the scoring system I created to formulate the LGI before the 2025 NFL season:
CASH - Cap Affordability, Salaries, and Headroom - While I mostly believe the salary cap to be a Fugazi, I do acknowledge it can, eventually, hinder player-signing/extending flexibility. CASH is a ranking of a club’s long-term financial outlook (essentially, just combined cap space for 2025 and 2026, because, really, outside of quarterbacks, every contract in the NFL is, at most, a two-year deal.)
FLEX - Future Lineup & EXpectations - How many Blue-Chip Players (BCPs) are on the roster, with minimal weight — but some — to the number of future Day 1/2 draft picks over the next two years. And to qualify for BCP status, a quarterback must be under 33 years old, a non-quarterback under 30, and a running back under 27 for the entirety of the 2025 season.
ACE - Ascendent Centerpiece Evaluation - My subjective ranking of the club’s long-term situation at the game’s most crucial position — quarterback. Beyond this specific evaluation, I have counted qualifying quarterbacks in BCPs to give the position its justified heavier weight.
Those are the components for the Long-Game Index. I’ve added the score in each to get every team’s LGI. A lower ranking is better, higher is worse in the Long-Game Index.
(Oh, and I broke LGI ties by quarterback situation and/or number of BCPs, then, very subjectively, number of up-and-coming players, like rookies or second-year studs on the roster.)
32. New Orleans Saints
CASH: 28th
FLEX: 32nd - (1 BCP | Carl Granderson)
ACE: 32nd
LGI: 92
Time spent on Bourbon Street can get away from you, and the typical result is a lengthy, head-thumping hangover. The Saints are still nursing one of those bad boys from the Drew Brees era. The franchise rightfully did everything in its CBA-sanctioned power to extend Brees’ time in the shotgun. But the perpetual contract restructures for him — and other stars from that famed Saints time period — have sunk New Orleans into a state in which they swear they’re never drinking again.
To make the hangover more piercing, the Saints have followed the Brees era with dreadful drafting. Chris Olave is the lone legitimate star talent selected since 2020, and he’s officially suffered four concussions in his first three NFL seasons. It feels like Olave is one more head injury from an early retirement. Former UDFA Rashid Shaheed is fun. But injuries have plagued him too.
If you were a Tyler Shough stan pre-draft, his early second-round selection by this suddenly Derek Carr-less club likely excites you. Reasonably clear path for him to be the starter, he’ll just need to fend off never-ending rocket launcher Spencer Rattler. I, personally, thought Shough was picked far too early. Even if he hits, the dude turns 26 in September. He was Justin Herbert’s backup at Oregon for cryin’ out loud.
I do love Carl Granderson — he’s criminally underrated as a high-energy, powerful, three-down edge rusher. The rest of the Saints roster feels impossibly barren, especially when it comes to the young talent pipeline, which speaks directly to its 32nd ranking in FLEX.
Best of luck with the undertaking ahead of you, Kellen Moore.
31. Cleveland Browns
CASH: 29th
FLEX: 26th - (3 BCPs | Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Denzel Ward)
ACE: 31st
LGI: 86
The Browns have made the playoffs twice in Kevin Stefanski’s tenure in Cleveland. Given where the organization was before his arrival, that feat is Ring of Honor material, if we’re being honest with ourselves.
And I do think Andrew Berry is a smart football brain. There was just that one seismic, worst-transaction-in-NFL history a few years ago. It cratered what Berry, Stefanski and Co. were slowly but surely constructing.
On that dreadful Browns team in 2024, Jeudy finally played like the super-hyped prospect he was coming out of Alabama in 2020, and if I loosed the qualifications for BCPs, Myles Garrett would be included here, as he’ll turn 30 in December. He probably has two if not three Defensive Player of the Year type seasons remaining on what a career that should land him down the road in Canton.
The offensive line isn’t as demolishing as it was a few years ago, and there’s not many captivating pieces on the rest of the roster. I somehow am four paragraphs in and am now just mentioning the mad-lib creation that is Cleveland’s quarterback competition in 2025. I have little faith in any of those passers playing good enough football to be remotely relevant in a loaded AFC.
30. Carolina Panthers
CASH: 19th
FLEX: 30th - (2 BCPs | Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn)
ACE: 27th
LGI: 76
This ranking feels harsh… if you believe in the completely transformed Bryce Young we witnessed in the second half of 2024. I do believe he’s safely drifted away from the choppy bust waters. Despite that, I don’t believe in physical traits. I think he’s close to being capped at the professional level from an athleticism and arm-strength perspective, hence the low ACE ranking.
Dan Morgan inherited an abysmal roster, and the team saw minimal returns from its 2024 draft class a season ago. Tetairoa McMillan should materialize into a quality, classic No. 1 wideout, and I wonder his development will do for last year’s first-round pick, Xavier Legette.
The defense allowed the most points in league history last season, therefore writing “it’s a year away” would be a flat-out lie. The CASH situation is respectable. Of course, the majority of the direction of this organization hinges on Young. Right now, this remains a contender for the first overall pick in 2026 while simultaneously holding a glimmer of potential to surprise the NFL world and contend in the NFC South IF Young’s ascension continues.
29. Miami Dolphins
CASH: 27th
FLEX: 29th - (2 BCPs | Jaylen Waddle, DeVon Achane)
ACE: 19th
LGI: 75
It’s like the Dolphins pivoted to physicality a year or two late. They went 340-pound Kenneth Grant in Round 1, then 325-pound Jonah Savaiinaea in Round 2. About time.
Mike McDaniel got his 15 minutes of fame — more like 15 months — as the NFL’s new dynamo offensive mind. He hailed from the Shanahan coaching tree, which has become a prerequisite for such distinction, and the Dolphins scored a lot of points… 70 to be exact in that one game against the Broncos.
Tua Tagovailoa emerged as one of the highest completion rate quarterbacks in football. But after consecutive wild-card losses, Miami didn’t even make the playoffs last year, and their prized acquisition of the McDaniel era, Tyreek Hill, is now on the wrong side of 30.
No one can be blamed for crushing injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, which drastically curtailed the upside of the pass rush, yet the Christian Wilkins decision really hurt last season, and in hindsight, led to the Grant pick at No. 13 overall in April. (related: I am bullish on Chop Robinson)
This is a team without a sparkly long-view, especially relative to the points and respectable amount of wins over the past two seasons. While they could make noise in 2025, this team feels sunburned and sleep-deprived with the Sunday scaries at the end of a three-day bender on South Beach.
28. Chicago Bears
CASH: 26th
FLEX: 21st - (4 BCPs | D.J. Moore, Jaylon Johnson, Drew Dalman, Montez Sweat, Darnell Wright)
ACE: 24th
LGI: 71
Before rolling through the LGI components, I would’ve guessed the Bears would rank higher than this… which is precisely why utilizing rubrics is much better than going willy-nilly with rankings.
What the Bears have done this offseason isn’t stupid — they’ve emphasized the offensive line with established, older veterans in front of Caleb Williams. Joe Thuney doesn’t qualify for FLEX, and Dalman, Thuney, and Jackson weren’t acquired at a discount. Inflation exists on the offensive-line market too.
Ben Johnson was a grand slam hire for the organization. For as much as I was considerably lower than most on the club’s first-round pick, Colston Loveland, I will acknowledge he was a bit of an “incomplete” evaluation because of his 2024 injury.
On the flipside of Chicago’s first two selections, I adored Luther Burden’s profile. I think he can be A.J. Brown-esque in the NFL, and Chicago has done it the right way with a young, hyper-talented quarterback on the roster — do not get complacent adding weapons around him while he’s a bargain.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
CASH: 23rd
FLEX: 28th - (2 BCPs | Brian Thomas Jr., Josh Hines-Allen)
ACE: 17th
LGI: 68
Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter. Travis Hunter. OK, Hunter Quota filled. He has the potential to be a truly transcendent type at receiver and cornerback, one of the rare franchise needle-movers who doesn’t play quarterback.
And his presence in Jacksonville represents the end of excuses for Trevor Lawrence, who has all the talent in the world — that we’ve been hearing about for like a decade now — with modest results. That 2022 season. Cool. Outrageous comeback in the playoffs against the Chargers. Altogether, Lawrence’s tenure to date has featured far more excuses than production, hence a possibly lower-than-you-expected ACE.
The roster is not great, Bob yet features those young magnificent talents in BTJ and Hunter. Frankly, I think Bhayshul Tuten is a magnificent talent too. Check his combine. Jacksonville only has minimal money respective to not paying worthwhile, big-ticket items beyond Lawrence.
26. Indianapolis Colts
CASH: 10th
FLEX: 27th - (3 BCPs | Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, Bernhard Raimann)
ACE: 30th
LGI: 67
I have thoughts on the blandness of the AFC South I’ll save for another time. Yet part of the indifference to this division — the Colts embody that indifference. And, really, I’ve been indifferent to this team from the moment Andrew Luck retired. OK, that was shocking.
Afterward, from Philip Rivers’ curtain call to Matt Ryan to Carson Wentz — which order were those latter two in again? — to Anthony Richardson and the current iteration of the quarterback room that features Daniel Jones, it’s all been outrageously sporadic and, frankly, dull.
The same goes for the roster under Chris Ballard during his more than decade-long tenure in Indianapolis. The offensive line is still good — Rainmann could eventually become an All-Pro. It’s no longer dominant. The defensive line prominently features two 30-something interior rushers without a regularly disruptive force on the edge — let’s go, Laiatu Latu — and the secondary is, in essence, in shambles.
At least Ballard and Co. have ample savings to spend, if they see fit in 2026 and beyond.
25. New York Giants
CASH: 24th
FLEX: 12th - (5 BCPs | Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Jevon Holland)
ACE: 28th
LGI: 64
Two household names at quarterback and a first-round pick equates to 28th in ACE? What gives, bro? Russell Wilson was dangeruss…ly bad in Pittsburgh last season. Un…acceptable for a starter. I’ve grown to realize and finally accept the following: Jameis Winston isn’t simply one opportunity away from morphing into an All-Pro.
That bizarre clash of personalities at quarterback will likely set the stage for Jaxson Dart to see the field sooner than later. He looks the part. And I don’t doubt Brian Daboll tapping into his new quarterback’s natural gifts. I also don’t doubt Daboll losing it when Dart tries to bite off more he can chew into tight coverage.
The roster is on the rise, as evidenced by the Giants’ relatively high FLEX ranking. Nabers is electric, Lawrence is the best nose tackle in football, and Holland will presumably boost a secondary that intercepted five passes all of last season.
There probably should be more financial freedom for a club that’s only made the playoffs once since 2017. While I’m looking well into the future here, it’s absolutely a make-or-break first half of the season for Dabs and GM Joe Schoen.
24. Atlanta Falcons
CASH: 25th
FLEX: 17th - (5 BCPs | Bijan Robinson, Jessie Bates, Drake London, Chris Lindstrom, A.J. Terrell)
ACE: 21st
LGI: 63
I’ve settled on my opinion of GM Terry Fontenot — I respect the hell out of his dedication to bit… the bit being the making the most unconventional decision possible at every turn. His first three Round 1 picks, all offensive skill-position players, including a running back.
Then he gives 35-year-old Kirk Cousins $100 million in guarantees fresh off a torn Achilles. Then, he uses a Top 10 pick on Michael Penix a month later. In April, he outdid himself by selecting two edge-rushers in Round 1, and spending exorbitantly on the second one (although James Pearce was my No. 1 prospect in the 2025 class).
After this frenetic GM ride, the Falcons have a reputable roster. They’re low in CASH, but post Cousins release (or trade?), they’d technically improve there. If Penix pops, the Falcons can win the NFC South — that statement is more about the division itself than my thoughts on Atlanta — and could suddenly have more long-term appeal than the Buccaneers.
23. Tennessee Titans
CASH: 3rd
FLEX: 31st - (1 BCP | Jeffery Simmons)
ACE: 27th
LGI: 61
Yes, Cam Ward received the least fanfare for a No. 1 pick in the NFL in recent memory. OK, maybe ever.
Two reasons for that — he was not a transcendent-type quarterback prospect, and the Titans held the No. 1 overall pick. Ward will make some how’d-he-do-that? plays as a rookie. There’ll be plenty of hiccups too. Partly because he’s not a tremendous physical specimen — which is becoming more and more a necessity not a luxury at the position — and partly due to a roster essentially devoid of game-breaking talent (especially young talent).
Probably wasn’t the best idea for former GM Jon Robinson to trade A.J. Brown and let Derrick Henry walk, was it?
Fortunately for fans in Nashville, new GM Mike Borgonzi will have plenty of literal cash to spend in 2026 and beyond. The Titans rank third in 2025 + 2026 cap space, and their great CASH buoys the club’s ranking here in the mid 20s.
22. New England Patriots
CASH: 13th
FLEX: 24th - (3 BCPs | Keion White, Milton Williams, Jabrill Peppers)
ACE: 23rd
LGI: 60
We all have to be careful about the Patriots. And I mean that in both ways that sentence can be interpreted. We can’t anoint Drake Maye too soon, and the rest of the NFL has to watch its back. Because the inherent talent is bubbling over with the second-year quarterback, and Mike Vrabel is one hell of a head coach with that gritty, do-whatever-is-necessary attitude usually needed in a game in which the edges are razor-thin.
The roster is improving but still in the lower fourth of the NFL. Maybe Maye elevates those around him, and Stefon Diggs will be helpful to the youngsters maturation. The offensive line got a boost with Will Campbell in the draft, yet has many question marks, and the defensive line has some serious pieces now with White and Williams but doesn’t have discernible depth.
21. Arizona Cardinals
CASH: 16th
FLEX: 25th - (3 BCPs | Trey McBride, Josh Sweat, Budda Baker)
ACE: 18th
LGI: 59
I can never actual tell how good Kyler Murray is. Right when I think he’s a Top 10 quarterback — because the flashes are sensational — he retreats backward. The Cardinals were that pesky, agitating team a season ago, and while the defense still has to get lightyears better, many of the offseason acquisitions were on that side of the ball, including Calais Campbell’s swan song in the desert.
A leap forward for Marvin Harrison Jr. would, obviously extend Murray’s prime. Also too, the offensive line must protect better regardless of how much Murray wants to scamper around.
GM Monti Ossenfort has a fair amount of money in the bank account to spend in the future, yet they still feel like the fourth-best team in what will, again, be a deceptively competitive NFC West over the next few years.
20. Minnesota Vikings
CASH: 32nd
FLEX: 2nd (8 BCPs | Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Christian Darrisaw, Brian O’Neill, Jordan Mason, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Byron Murphy)
ACE: 25th
LGI: 59
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has done it the right way — he’s gone berserk loading this roster to take full advantage of having a young quarterback on a rookie deal. Last offseason was a masterclass in GMing.
He doesn’t re-sign Danielle Hunter then spends that money on Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman. Mason will be the lead back by November (at the latest) and a damn good one at that, in this Shanahanian system that has withstood the test of time through like three decades now.
Jefferson is the NFL’s best, most complete receiver, Addison is in the running for the best No. 2 in football, and the offensive line will be in the discussion for most devastating unit this season.
No pressure, J.J. McCarthy. None at all.
(from the back: I do not hate the idea of Sam Howell as the maybe-has-to-play backup. I could see him rocking in this offense)
Reworking can be done, but the Vikings are currently set to be around $60M *over* the cap in 2026, which hurt their CASH.
19. Kansas City Chiefs
CASH: 31st
FLEX: 15th (5 BCPs | Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Trent McDuffie)
ACE: 7th
LGI: 53
The most accomplished team of the 2020s, a true dynasty in today’s parity-loaded NFL, the Chiefs have done what was previously unthinkable — match the Tom Brady-Patriots in resiliency when doubters annually believe this is the year they won’t reach the Super Bowl.
OK, so they did get trounced by the Eagles in New Orleans in February, yet it was the organization’s sixth appearance in the big game in the past seven years. Remarkable.
Of late, Patrick Mahomes has gone full Brady too — quietly very good if not always otherworldly in an iron-out-the-wrinkles regular season then deadly in the playoffs. Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses still probably don’t get enough publicity for how much they’ve factored into the club’s January and February success.
Fact is though, while the Chiefs are absolutely Super Bowl contenders in 2025, Travis Kelce is probably playing his last season. Chris Jones, still a colossal pain in the ass for every offensive line he faces, turns 31 in July. And offensive architectural genius Andy Reid is 67. GM Brett Veach’s palpable aggression every season on the player-acquisition market has been integral in Kansas City sustaining its supreme success.
The Chiefs are in a good, not tremendous spot looking deep into the future, especially given its minuscule CASH ranking before impending new deals desired by McDuffie in the slot and Smith at guard.
For all of my NFL analysis — like these rankings — become a subscriber to TrapSheet
18. Seattle Seahawks
CASH: 9th
FLEX: 18th - (5 BCPs | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Charles Cross, Ken Walker, Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon)
ACE: 22nd
LGI: 49
I have a feeling Sam Darnold is going to flame out in Seattle. Not like Jets-level Darnold flame out. But not be nearly as efficient as he was in what we will ultimately realize was an aberration of a 2024 season in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson, Kevin O’Connell with five, intimidating club bouncers protecting him on every snap.
I do believe Darnold’s natural skills will appear at times, which keeps Seattle’s ACE at a reasonable level. JSN, Walker, and Cross represent a fine building-block offensive trio. Woolen and Witherspoon complement each other wonderfully — particularly regarding their size and skill sets — in the secondary.
The roster still has plenty of room to get better, and, fortunately for John Schneider, he’ll have deep pockets if he wants to spend in any of the next two or three years on some game-changing free agents.
17. San Francisco 49ers
CASH: 11th
FLEX: 22nd - (4 BCPs | Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, Fred Warner)
ACE: 13th
LGI: 46
The 49ers might be the hardest team to read in the NFL. Deebo Samuel is gone. George Kittle is still a dude’s dude, but he’s 31. Trent Williams is very near the end of his Hall of Fame career.
Yet, along with Bosa, and newly minted Purdy — whom I’ve come around on quite a bit, actually — there’s enough star power in San Francisco to make yet another deep playoff run. And if history is to be our teacher, it’ll either be an NFC title game appearance or no playoffs for the 49ers this season. That’s been their only two outcomes since 2011 (or 2003 if you want to count the eight postseason-less years seasons leading into that NFC championship appearance in 2011).
GM John Lynch has stayed liquid on the books, hence the solid CASH ranking, and while I don’t think Purdy would be an efficient wizard on many other teams, he only plays for one team, and just signed a contract in which the 49ers can’t even realistic get out from until 2029.
The 49ers can win right this very instant. But how will we be feeling about Purdy and Co. in a year or two?
16. New York Jets
Cap Affordability, Salaries, and Headroom: 8th
Future Lineup, EXpectations: 8th - (6 BCPs | Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Will McDonald, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams, Sauce Gardner)
Ascendent Centerpiece Evaluation: 29th
Long-Game Index: 45
The Jets low-key boast captivating young talent. I’m talking All-Pro types on both sides of the ball, which is why their FLEX is near the top of the league. Heck, if Jermaine Johnson returns to 2023 form post-injury, this team would clearly have 7 BCPs. Elite-caliber.
The quarterback sitch is dicey, which moves the needle more than anything else. GM Joe Douglas did some really nice things for the organization — so did Robert Saleh — unfortunately the Aaron Rodgers fiasco, which to be fair, did include a torn Achilles four snaps into his Jets debut, did both of them in. I mention that because Douglas did align this team nicely to pay all the tremendous talent he drafted.
This upcoming season does feel like yet another in which the quarterback holds back the Jets. But, on paper, 2026 and beyond are promising for this new regime.
15. Houston Texans
CASH: 21st
FLEX: 19th - (4 BCPs C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Will Anderson, Derek Stingley Jr.)
ACE: 2nd
LGI: 42
How do we feel about the Texans? They’re really good, right? Back-to-back division titles. Back-to-back seasons with a playoff win. Hooray. Except C.J. Stroud took a minor step in the wrong direction in Year 2, the offensive line was an abomination, and the defense was hardly as menacing as it had been in DeMeco Ryans’ first season at the helm.
Anyway, Houston still places 2nd in ACE because I firmly believe in Stroud’s future. He’s a dedicated craftsman, with a rapid release, elite-level anticipatory skills and placement. Collins has “best receiver in the NFL” type natural skills — let’s hope that hamstring doesn’t act up again — and Anderson has All-Pro honors in his future. I can feel it. Stingley isn’t the game’s stickiest man-to-man corner. He finds the damn football though, and nothing is more impactful that interceptions for a defensive back.
I applaud Houston for scraping the entire offensive line — sunk-cost fallacy avoided — but Nick Caserio doesn’t have gobs of money to play with ahead of what is bound to be a seismic Stroud extension. And I’d like to see a few more mid-tier defenders (particularly young ones) make clear improvements. On offense, all eyes will be on the two Iowa State rookie receivers and whether or not they can become partners-in-crime with Collins.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CASH: 14th
FLEX: 6th - (7 BCPs | Tristan Wirfs, Bucky Irving, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr., Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey)
ACE: 20th
LGI: 40
Get your bag, Jason Licht. You deserve it. This man has been the Buccaneers GM since 2014 and navigated the club like a veteran boat captain for over a decade now, and put a Lombardi in the trophy case.
The receiver collection is aging — but Godwin is somehow still only 29 — yet Wirfs is on the cusp of being widely regarded as the best left tackle in football if he’s not already considered that in some cirlces. Dean has probably been the most underrated cornerback in football since he was selected in 2019, and when healthy, Winfield is as complete as they come at the safety position.
Weirdly, beyond Vea, Licht has routinely missed along the defensive line, especially on the edge. I am labeling Kancey as a BCP after a breakout Year 2.
Baker Mayfield is serviceable. And maybe that’s too harsh. He absolutely has reached his peak, a peak that can get the Buccaneers within a quarter of the NFC Championship game. I don’t know if he’s capable of ascending to another level. And he’s only signed through 2026. Plus he’s 30.
With Evans’ career coming to a close, and without a litany of contract-year talent in the pipeline, the Bucs have considerable room to spend to supplement the roster over the next few years.
13. Dallas Cowboys
CASH: 17th
FLEX: 14th - (5 BCPs | Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, DaRon Bland, George Pickens)
ACE: 9th
LGI: 40
Prescott has felt like the Cowboys quarterback for centuries, but he’ll only be 32 in July. There’s gas left in the pickup. As is seemingly the case for every Cowboys quarterback, he’s ridiculously polarizing. Some analysts I respect very much view him as borderline Top 5-7. Others think he’s woefully overrated, not clutch, and totally incapable of leading Dallas to meaningful, January wins.
I land somewhere in the middle. He's proven to be a high-volume stat accumulator, but trait-wise, he’s above-average across the board, and in today’s NFL, we live in land of freakazoids reigning supreme at the position.
Beyond Dak, Parsons and Lamb are All-Pro types. Parsons’ career arc is elevating toward eventual Hall of Fame distinction. Can/will Jerry Jones keep him around with a shiny new deal? I think so. Certainly didn’t save money by waiting to send a reasonable offer. I also believe in Bland returning to form, healthy in 2025. No, he’s not going to house like 24 interceptions like he did in 2023. The instincts are phenomenal, and he’s a plus athlete. And while Pickens will cause a stir at times, there’s no doubting his impeccable, almost unfathomable ball skills. He’ll be an exquisite complement to the route-running mastery of Lamb in this offense.
Even though the defense needs more dudes — Osa Odighizuwa is damn close to a BCP — Jerry has money in the vault to spend in the near future.
12. Detroit Lions
CASH: 22nd
FLEX: 3rd - (7 BCPs | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs, Alim McNeill, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph)
ACE: 15th
LGI: 40
The Lions have been my favorite team to watch the past three seasons. Maybe there’ve been more fun individuals to zero-in on each weekend. I’ve had the biggest blast with Lions games — uptempo, with creativity every fan craves but hardly gets from its offensive coordinator, pulverizing on the ground, Efficiency City through the air, and even considering to punt has been viewed as a cardinal sin.
But what happens with Ben Johnson gone?
I’d think — and hope — some of the Johnsonian principles remain in Detroit. St. Brown ain’t going nowhere. And there’s no way the Football Gods rain down on the defense with injuries like they did a season ago.
It would not surprise me if we all consider Gibbs the NFL’s best back during the season, and Branch and Joseph are the league’s finest safety tandem. In short, GM Brad Holmes has hit long ball after long ball in the draft.
This roster is still as talented as any in football — and the D.J. Reed signing couldn’t be a better fit with Dan Campbell’s defense.
11. Buffalo Bills
CASH: 30th
FLEX: 7th - (6 BCPs | Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Spencer Brown, James Cook, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson)
ACE: 3rd
LGI: 40
The Bills have the reigning MVP in Josh Allen, who’s still not 30 years old. He’s the ultimate combination of passing and running supremacy in the NFL, which speaks directly to Buffalo’s position at No. 3 in ACE.
Even as the Bills turned to a new chapter in 2024, the draft pipeline remained a key avenue for GM Brandon Beane to add top-flight talent. That 2022 class featuring Cook, Terrel Bernard (on the cusp of BCP status), Shakir, and Benford was spectacular.
The Bills don’t have much wiggle room financial, which comes when your quarterback is playing on a $330M deal. Yet, the one-year veterans the Bills can attract on a yearly basis helps assuage some of the club’s financial inflexibility.
Buffalo is ready to win a Super Bowl now. With Allen still in his 20s along with a diverse set of weaponry on the offensive side, a strapping blocking unit, and a large collection of young talent on defense, this organization has staying power.
For all of my NFL analysis — like these rankings — become a subscriber to TrapSheet
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
CASH: 4th
FLEX: 9th - (6 BCPs | D.K. Metcalf, Zach Frazier, Pat Freiermuth, Alex Highsmith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr.)
ACE: 26th
LGI: 38
Gotta be honest — this ranking surprised me. The Steelers feel more stuck in the mud than this. And the position to stay patchwork at quarterback is highly questionable. However, GM Omar Khan has discreetly done two facets of his job extraordinarily well — the roster is one of the best in football, and the organization isn’t cash-strapped.
Now, he absolutely needs to make a prudent, long-term investment in the quarterback position. Soon. Aaron Rodgers could, conceivably provide the Steelers with the best play the organization has experienced since Ben Roethlisberger… in 2019.
The last thing Pittsburgh needs though, is another wild-card exit and 2026 first-round pick in the 20s.
Despite the uncharacteristically flimsy-ish plan in the short-term, the Steelers, true to form as the NFL’s most stable franchise over the past half century, are well-positioned to stay super-relevant in the long run.
9. Las Vegas Raiders
CASH: 2nd
FLEX: 20th - (4 BCPs | Brock Bowers, Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins, Malcolm Koonce)
ACE: 16th
LGI: 38
The Raiders are a paradox — they got older at quarterback and head coach with Geno Smith and Pete Carroll but they’re playing the long game better now than they have in a while. Like in over a decade, at least.
They’re loaded financially. Geno raises the floor of the quarterback spot in Las Vegas. Altogether, the roster is on the upswing, headlined by Bowers, and first-round pick Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders offensive line is underrated — watch for Dylan Parham and Jackson Powers-Johnson on the interior. With Koonce and Wilkins returning with Crosby, I also expect the defensive front to break stuff often (Limp Bizkit came on Panora the other day in the car.)
Oh, and I thought rookie GM John Spytek had a legitimate A+ draft in April. First impression couldn’t have been much better (beyond the whole RD1 running back thing. Jack Bech is going to eat, and Carroll will work wonders with pterodactyl cornerback Darien Porter.
8. Denver Broncos
CASH: 12th
FLEX: 16th - (5 BCPs | Patrick Surtain II, Quinn Meinerz, Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto, Tal Hufanga)
ACE: 5th
LGI: 33
Another AFC West club in the Top 10 clearly indicates the improving sturdy nature of this division. Denver’s defense was the best in the NFL last season in a few major categories, and GM George Paton added Dre Greenlaw (nearly a BCP) and Hufanga this offseason. Hats off to the strengthening a strength philosophy.
While I was in the vast minority in my assessment of Bo Nix’s rookie season being overrated, I understand he’s an exquisite, extension-of-Sean-Payton-on-the-field type quarterback that could, in time, allow Denver’s offense to really hum. Giving Marvin Mims more opportunity would be a start, Broncos coaching staff.
Surtain is as lockdown as they get on the outside in today’s NFL, and this Broncos team looks formidable well into the future mostly because of its power in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Well, that, along with Nix on a rookie deal and a hefty CASH ranking.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
CASH: 18th
FLEX: 1st - (8 BCPs | Jalen Hurts, Jordan Mailata, A.J. Brown. Devonta Smith, Zach Baun, Jalen Carter, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean)
ACE: 12th
LGI: 31
Even with departures of Josh Sweat and Milton Williams — and Bryce Huff — the Eagles take the top spot in FLEX, which serves as the millionth reminder of how loaded the defending Super Bowl champs were last season.
Brown is only 27, which seems Benjamin Button-y, doesn’t it? And last year’s first two draft picks, Mitchell and DeJean look like future All-Pros. Oh, weird, another elite GM without any football-playing background. Actually, Howie Roseman is GM1 in today’s NFL.
There could be a slight regression from the dominance we observed from Philly en route to the club’s second Super Bowl title in a decade. Long-term though, Roseman and Co. are all set.
6. Baltimore Ravens
CASH: 20th
FLEX: 4th - 7 BCPs (Lamar Jackson, Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Zay Flowers, Nnamdi Madubuike)
ACE: 6th
LGI: 30
This is my first time writing this analysis, but I’ve noticed great FLEX and ACE scores equate to Super Bowl contenders. That’s precisely what the Ravens have and are at the current moment. Remember, last year, Baltimore placed six on the All-Pro teams.
The Ravens be frivolous with their money. But they never are. Never have been. It’s not in the organizational DNA. And for my money, Eric DeCosta is GM2 in football. Brilliant team-builder in every sense of the phrase.
This club has advanced to the playoffs in 16 of 29 seasons since moving to Baltimore, with two Super Bowl titles — under owner Steve Bisciotti’s watchful eye, and those of DeCosta and John Harbaugh, the Ravens feel simultaneously in win-now mode without ever tarnishing the future.
5. Washington Commanders
CASH: 6th
FLEX: 23rd (4 BCPs | Jayden Daniels, Frankie Luvu, Marshon Lattimore, Mike Sainristil)
ACE: 1st
LGI: 30
Another surprising spot. Well, I actually did figure the Commanders would be near the top of the LGI overall. The FLEX score was a bit of a shock as I tabulated. Washington is built to win right this very instant.
We’ll see how some of the young talent GM Adam Peters has selected the past two drafts emerges (or not). But with Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and Samuel as a gadget-y YAC monster, the Commanders roster isn’t constructed with established youthful stars for the long haul… well besides Daniels, the reason Washington received top billing in ACE.
They have three more outrageously cheap seasons of him at quarterback, the ultimate team-building luxury. There’s money in the bank too. It’s almost as if Dan Snyder was an obstacle.
4. Los Angeles Rams
CASH: 7th
FLEX: 11th - (5 BCPs | Puka Nacua, Kevin Dotson, Kyren Williams, Jared Verse, Kobie Turner)
ACE: 10th
LGI: 28
GM Les Snead does not get enough recognition. For his longevity and uncanny ability to keep the Rams relevant. Very relevant. He’s bounced from philosophy to philosophy smoothly. Went the veteran route. Hated first-rounders. Now he’s drafting like a madman (in a good way).
Plus, this club can keep Matthew Stafford for two more seasons, at a reasonable, under-market price (to be honest.)
The Rams’ defensive line miraculously didn’t regress after Aaron Donald’s retirement, although a downturn for that group seemed like the most inevitable development entering last season.
Nacua and Davante Adams will probably lead the NFL in most combined catches by teammates in 2025, and Braden Fiske will likely enter BCP territory this year. I have some concerns about the linebacker group and secondary.
Overall, the Rams are steady eddy.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
CASH: 1st
FLEX: 13th - (5 BCPs | Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater, Ladd McConkey, Joe Alt, Derwin James)
ACE: 14th
LGI: 28
GM Joe Hortiz, a longtime DeCosta lieutenant in Baltimore, is sitting in the lap of luxury. The most money to spend the next two seasons, a still young, hyper-talented quarterback already under his second contract, and four foundational BCPs entering the primes of their careers.
Heck, and James is only 28.
Slater’s extension is looming, and will be well-deserved when he signs on the dotted line. And there’s a decent chance Mekhi Becton becomes most of the most vital yet overlooked free-agent adds of the offseason — the right side of the Chargers offensive front has been an abomination to date in the Herbert era.
I think the world of Herbert. We do need to see him boldly take that next step, because he gets increasingly more expensive the next three seasons.
2. Green Bay Packers
CASH: 15th
FLEX: 5th - (7 BCPs | Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Zach Tom, Elgton Jenkins, Rashan Gary, Edgerrin Cooper, Xavier McKinney)
ACE: 8th
LGI: 28
The Packers just hum along, minding their own business, and anything short of, I don’t know, and NFC title game appearance feels like a colossal failure for this franchise.
I *almost* placed Jordan Love into the BCP range. He’s thisclose. Heck, if you want to anoint him one, that’s fine. Wouldn’t move the Packers into the top LGI spot anyway. Beyond him — and he’s damn good — Green Bay is littered with explosive talent, and, critically, that upper-echelon group is complement by many above-average players like Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Rasheed Walker.
Rashan Gary has been on an island for years now, so the Packers do need more juice from someone other than him up front. But with a young, improvisational quarterback with a live arm and flair for the dramatic, and a rather loaded roster, the Packers are here to stay for a long while.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
CASH: 5th
FLEX: 10th - (5 BCPs | Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Logan Wilson, Chase Brown)
ACE: 4th
LGI: 19
The Cincinnati Bengals are the No. 1 team in the first-ever Long-Term Index. They boast the NFL’s premier triplets — which today can certainly be QB-WR-WR — with Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. We all know that. And Burrow is undeniably elite, the most accurate, three-level thrower in the game whose quick release is only outpaced by how fast he deciphers coverage.
I’ve already given the running back, Brown, into BCP status. It won’t seem bold by the middle portion of this season. He’s a special talent. The defense hardly held up its end of the bargain in 2024, when Burrow went nutty on essentially every defense he faced. Even if that unit holds back this otherwise Super Bowl-caliber team again, Cincinnati is more equipped than any other team for that championship window to stay wide open, for a prolonged period (in NFL years).
Ironically, there’s a caveat with this inaugural top billing — the Bengals are 5th in CASH. But does Mike Brown keep the team operating on its own, lower cap?
Anyway, the Bengals deserve this ranking because they, technically, are flush financially and have the firepower to go to battle with anyone offensively.
💌 Enjoy this? Subscribe free to get every post straight to your email inbox